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Peter Mac's avatar

Looks like we will need 2m tons of coal the reality train is getting closer Larry

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Steve Elliott's avatar

I'm a Brit. There is a well known 1945 quote from Aneurin Bevan MP.

"This island is made mainly of coal and surrounded by fish. Only an organizing genius could produce a shortage of coal and fish at the same time."

However I believe they did achieve this double which apparently cost them the general election a few years later. It seems that this quote could equally apply to New Zealand.

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New Zealand Energy's avatar

Very good Steve!

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Steve Elliott's avatar

The 1946/47 winter was one of the coldest and harshest winters we've ever had and people were cold in their homes because there was a coal shortage. My mother is 99, was married in 1947 and remembers that winter. Politicians should be reminded.

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New Zealand Energy's avatar

"We move from denial to acceptance only when the consequences of inaction become intolerable."

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Winston Moreton's avatar

Was that before the time of the Great London fog in 1952 Steve ? Thousands died from respiratory sickness from coal fired heating

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William Rickards's avatar

👌🏻😆

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Lachie F.'s avatar

Do you think MBIE definitions of Reserves are the same as or similar to the SEC definitions in the US. If so, the numbers would be Producible Gas, with relation to current technology, economic conditions etc.

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New Zealand Energy's avatar

Hi Lachie, yes the definitions are:

Reserves (1P, 2P and 3P):

The amount of crude oil, LPG, or natural gas that is believed to be available and commercially producible in an oil or natural gas field. These are reported at different levels of confidence or certainty.

› 1P reserves are Proven reserves (both developed and undeveloped). These reserves have a 90 per cent certainty of being produced.

› 2P reserves are the sum of Proven reserves and Probable reserves. These reserves have a 50 per cent certainty of being produced.

› 3P reserves are the sum of Proven reserves, Probable reserves, and Possible reserves. These reserves have a 10 per cent certainty of being produced.

I’m not banking too much in the technology space as we don’t have enough time left for new technologies to be deployed in NZ.

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Clive Thorp's avatar

Larry, I'm a newbie here and will be interested to see your follow-up to Rudderless (which I did feel was a bit harsh!). While hunting for information for other use I came across the 30 June 2020 MBIE 'Wind Generation Stack Update', a significant planning document for about 80 wind sites around NZ which would allow cumulative development as required, compiled at some cost by MBIE. If you haven't seen it, I regard it at least as a component in some form of strategy or plan for energy strategy for NZ, and would be disappointed if you hadn't taken it into account. It's easy to find on the web as a pdf.

cheers, Clive

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