Agree that for all its strengths, the fragmented and commercialised electricity generation system is now incapable of delivering new baseload capacity at scale, which the old NZED and Power Division of the Ministry of Works did brilliantly and whose legacy we are still dependent on. MOW / MWD would go in and build a whole new town as a springboard for contruction at scale - think Mangakino, Manapouri inlet, Twizel, Roxburgh, Cromwell etc. The thought of one of the current gentailers taking on megastructure investments like this is inconceivable.
Hi Tony, that's essentially it in a nutshell. No one entity has the ability to amass the capital required to solve this problem.
Further aggravating the issue is that the proposed solutions like offshore wind do not integrate well and would require a massive overhaul of the transmission network and ultimately the market. Which would be even more capital intensive.
There has to be a solution where the generators can operate independently (because the government should never be involved in operations) but consolidate dividends to build future capacity. Thats the challenge if we have not descended too far into catabolic collapse already.
Nuclear is of course the most brilliant and safest solution, and small reactors ideal for NZ will be online in the next three years in several places around the world. We just have to get over our childish fears - and childish pride in being nuclear haters. Hasn't aged well, and meanwhile the French, who precipitated our bad attitude in the first place, get over 50% of their electricity from nuclear, recycle their used fuel safely (even the US does not do that), and enjoy some of the cheapest power in Europe.
Hi Evan, great comment thanks. I'm following the small reactor developments. Shielding seems to be the biggest challenge at the moment. You may find this interesting from a historical perspective.
Thank you. That original article was published two years after I left NZ to marry the love of my life. Yes, most of the SMR developers plan to bury their products in the ground. No doubt shielding factors into this, also security. Full disclosure - I own shares in Nuscale. Just putting my money where my mouth is, because I became a nuclear enthusiast 45 years ago, when I had a neighbor in Wellington who had served on a British nuclear sub.
You ask, "What is the moral framework for deciding which businesses have a right to exist?
Simple - all businesses have a right to exist here, excepting the one in the Southland electorate which is paid by the tax payer to take all of the Lake Manapouri electricity generation 24/7. If that polluter was sent home like the overstayer it is kiwi would have surplus generation and the retail costs to householders would come down. No need for for expensive imported gear for wind and solar let alone nuclear options. Quite simple really
Agree that for all its strengths, the fragmented and commercialised electricity generation system is now incapable of delivering new baseload capacity at scale, which the old NZED and Power Division of the Ministry of Works did brilliantly and whose legacy we are still dependent on. MOW / MWD would go in and build a whole new town as a springboard for contruction at scale - think Mangakino, Manapouri inlet, Twizel, Roxburgh, Cromwell etc. The thought of one of the current gentailers taking on megastructure investments like this is inconceivable.
Hi Tony, that's essentially it in a nutshell. No one entity has the ability to amass the capital required to solve this problem.
Further aggravating the issue is that the proposed solutions like offshore wind do not integrate well and would require a massive overhaul of the transmission network and ultimately the market. Which would be even more capital intensive.
There has to be a solution where the generators can operate independently (because the government should never be involved in operations) but consolidate dividends to build future capacity. Thats the challenge if we have not descended too far into catabolic collapse already.
P.s. I'm working on that project we spoke about.
Nuclear is of course the most brilliant and safest solution, and small reactors ideal for NZ will be online in the next three years in several places around the world. We just have to get over our childish fears - and childish pride in being nuclear haters. Hasn't aged well, and meanwhile the French, who precipitated our bad attitude in the first place, get over 50% of their electricity from nuclear, recycle their used fuel safely (even the US does not do that), and enjoy some of the cheapest power in Europe.
Hi Evan, great comment thanks. I'm following the small reactor developments. Shielding seems to be the biggest challenge at the moment. You may find this interesting from a historical perspective.
https://newzealandenergy.substack.com/p/nuclear-new-zealand?r=ubsbu
Thank you. That original article was published two years after I left NZ to marry the love of my life. Yes, most of the SMR developers plan to bury their products in the ground. No doubt shielding factors into this, also security. Full disclosure - I own shares in Nuscale. Just putting my money where my mouth is, because I became a nuclear enthusiast 45 years ago, when I had a neighbor in Wellington who had served on a British nuclear sub.
Welcome back online.
You ask, "What is the moral framework for deciding which businesses have a right to exist?
Simple - all businesses have a right to exist here, excepting the one in the Southland electorate which is paid by the tax payer to take all of the Lake Manapouri electricity generation 24/7. If that polluter was sent home like the overstayer it is kiwi would have surplus generation and the retail costs to householders would come down. No need for for expensive imported gear for wind and solar let alone nuclear options. Quite simple really
Thanks Moreton I guess this is a similar argument in a way as the Motunui Synfuels plant was originally paid for by the taxpayer too.
And the electricity assets once owned in Trust for Gisborne households were sold last year to a Japan company for a paltry $800 mil.
Good piece Larry. I see Max "power prices will go down" Bradford gets a mention. I remember his reforms well.
Thanks, I want to do a piece on Max's reforms when I find the time. It will be good to contrast the promised outcomes with the empirical outcomes.
A good read and in the light of the latest from Doomberg item we are sitting on plenty of potential energy in Nz we just need to see the light
Hi Peter, I agree and covered off the green chicken's take on New Zealand.
https://newzealandenergy.substack.com/p/the-green-chicken-weighs-in-on-nzs?r=ubsbu