Singapore Sling
The pineapple juice and gin in New Zealand's energy cocktail.
“We are pragmatists... Does it work? Let's try it and if it does work, fine, let's continue it. If it doesn't work, toss it out, try another one. We are not enamoured with any ideology." Lee Kuan Yew
Singapore has been an important chapter in my life having spent several years living there and working in the shipyards a bit over a decade ago.
Knowing very little about Singapore when I first arrived, I quickly became fascinated by its history, its growth story, its culture and its politics.
Astute pragmatism and unrelenting diligence are how I would summarise the Singapore story under the benevolent dictatorship of the much-loved Lee Kuan Yew.
Recently I was visiting Singapore again on business, and as I often do when I am there, I find myself contrasting Singapore to New Zealand. There are some interesting comparisons to be made both geographically and societally.
Singapore at 734 km2 in area is not a lot bigger than lake Taupo at 616km2.
Singapore has a population of ~5.6 million compared to New Zealand’s ~5.1 million.
Singapore has very little in the way of natural resources, to the extent that even fresh water is a challenge for this little island nation. So much so that they need to recycle wastewater to supplement the domestic water supply.
Singapore also does not have any domestic energy reserves, minerals or significant agricultural land. Almost everything is imported. Singapore’s greatest resource is its strategic position in the Malacca Straits, the world’s second busiest shipping route, and the relative proximity to Malaysian and Indonesian natural gas fields.
Societally one could also argue that their ant farm, very little social welfare and everyone must contribute, culture is also one of their greatest assets.
By relative contrast New Zealand is expansive and blessed with a wealth of natural resources and energy sources.
Energy Pragmatists
Singapore’s government is indeed run by pragmatists, and I would suggest energy realists who understand that money is in fact a claim on energy. How else could a little island nation at the end of a peninsula, with no resources survive let alone thrive?
Singapore never takes a strong ideological or political position on any geopolitical issue. They participate in everything and do their upmost to not ruffle any feathers in either the east or the west. As pragmatists they understand well that their greatest vulnerability is food, water or energy not coming across the border. As such they maintain completely neutral relationships with numerous backup plans.
Singapore’s GDP in 2022 was USD $466.8 billion produced from 3.17 exajoules of net primary energy, nearly 100% of which is imported.
Singapore’s economy is also entirely hydrocarbon powered and more than 95% of their electricity is generated by natural gas.
New Zealand by contrast had a 2022 GDP of USD $248.1 billion produced from 0.54 exajoules of net primary energy, approximately 26% of which is imported.
On face value these figures present a number of interesting observations.
Singapore at ~1.9 x the GDP / capita uses nearly 6 x the net primary energy.
Singapore’s economic energy intensity is 3 x higher than New Zealand’s.
This would suggest that New Zealand’s economy is more energy efficient than Singapore’s when we only consider net primary energy in terms of fuel sources (electricity and hydrocarbons).
Interestingly, and as a slight segue, when we use the widest possible boundary analysis, recognizing that NZ’s largest economic sector is agriculture, with about 15 million Ha of farming and commercial forestry land, and that plants use around 0.1 - 0.5% of total solar irradiation for photosynthesis, this adds ~3.02 EJ of energy input to New Zealand’s economic production.
This gives New Zealand’s economy a total energy input of 3.74 EJ, slightly higher than Singapore, but also surprisingly similar on a per capita basis.
Obviously, until politicians figure out how to tax sunlight, sunlight is essentially a free input to New Zealand’s economy, but an input none the less and a very significant one at that.
Dependent on Singaporean pragmatism
However, unbeknown to most New Zealand is dependent on Singapore’s energy pragmatism.
When we look at the bar chart above of Singapore’s import and exports of energy products, we see that they convert orange to blue, crude oil to refined products.
According to the US EIA (Energy Information Administration), as of January 2021, Singapore's three refineries had a combined crude oil refining capacity of 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d). This makes Singapore the world's third largest concentrated refining center, after the U.S. Gulf Coast and Rotterdam.
This explains the high energy intensity of Singapore’s economy given that refining is an energy intensive business.
This also goes some way to explain the GDP / capita differences between NZ and Singapore as New Zealand exports about $1B in products, primarily food, to Singapore and imports about $3 B in products, primarily refined fuels and oils, from Singapore.
In 2023 New Zealand imported ~57% of all our refined fuel products (petrol, diesel, and jet fuels) from Singapore.
Diesel is the life blood of modern societies, and the hardest fuel to replace, with properties are akin to magic. Without diesel New Zealand’s tractors, stock trucks, logging trucks and milk tankers won’t work. And no, hydrogen will never have the same levels of utility or productivity, because physics (second law of thermodynamics).
With the loss of Marsden Point refinery in New Zealand following a trend of global refining capacity decreasing and geopolitical tensions increasing, Singapore has become of ever-increasing critical importance to New Zealand’s energy security as the closest exporting refinery.
It is for this reason that we should appreciate Singapore’s energy pragmatism and indifference to ideological stances. We are dependent on them not committing economic suicide at the altar of green ideology as we need them to keep our life blood pumping.
P.s There is a whole article to be written on Singapore’s go along to get along but don’t over commit approach to the Paris climate agreement that New Zealand could learn from, but that’s for another day.
Have a great weekend using all those Singaporean refined products to mow your lawns and cut your hedges!